Don't flee Twitter because of Elon Musk just yet. Here's why.

There's no need to freak out over Elon Musk buying Twitter. He's all hype.

Musk is a hype man who rarely ever delivers what he promises, so don't leave Twitter just yet.

We don't know what Elon Musk will do to Twitter. You can't trust what he says. Credit: Sheldon Cooper / SOPA Images / LightRocket Via Getty Images

Just because Elon says it doesn't mean it's true.

Elon Musk is the "genius" co-founder of Tesla, according to his bio on the company website. Except he isn't a founder at all, joining well after Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning created Tesla in 2003. Musk's fans may admire him for building SpaceX, a space exploration company, however, that company's success was made possible through billions in government funding — subsidies Musk later said shouldn't exist (for others, of course).

Musk boasted about sending ventilators to hospitals during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spring 2020, but he didn't. In Oct. 2021, Musk told the U.N.'s World Food Programme that if they provided him with a plan of action, he'd donate $6 billion to make it happen. When the director of the program stepped up with more information, Musk went silent on the issue. To date, he never donated.

I could go on as there are plenty of examples like this, but my point is: Elon Musk is nothing but a hype man. There's no need to worry about his takeover of Twitter. At least, not yet.

Here's why.

The art of the deal

You might think Elon Musk is now running Twitter after hearing the news that Twitter had accepted the billionaire's offer to buy the company. The jubilant reactions from Musk fanboys and conservatives who buy his "free speech" credo might lead you to believe this, too. The truth is that the deal has not been finalized. Musk doesn't own Twitter yet. In fact, it'll probably be months before the deal is done.

Hell, the deal might not even go through. I'm not prognosticating and claiming it won't. I'm saying it's a simple fact that the possibility exists that Musk will not end up owning Twitter. It could happen. Some have even laid out exactly how it could possibly go down.

Musk's offer for Twitter was $44 billion but where will those funds come from? He doesn't have that much in liquid assets. Some of that buyout price will come from the Tesla stock he will sell off. Another chunk will be provided by bank financing. But that won't cover it all. Does he have investors already lined up? Even if he does, people can pull out. Things can change.

The platforms

Let's say everything does go according to plan and Musk ends up owning Twitter. Let's also go along with his commitment to change Twitter policy in the name of "free speech." His fans believe this will mean a return to a more unregulated social media forum; one where previously moderated accounts and offensive content, much of which would be categorized as hate speech and attacks on marginalized groups, would be allowed on the platform. Also, previously banned users would be allowed to rejoin.

Even if all this happens, Musk's Twitter will still be beholden to other big tech companies, such as Apple and Google, that it depends on to distribute its services. For an example of how this could play out, look no further than what happened last year to the conservative social media platform, Parler.

Apple and Google have an absolute stranglehold on the mobile market. If you want your service to be successful, it's necessary that its mobile app is distributed via the App Store (and to a lesser extent, the Google Play store). Parler, after failing to moderate its platform, ended up violating both company's policies and, as a result, the social media app was removed from both app stores. Even Amazon ended up giving Parler the boot from its Amazon Web Services hosting platform.

In order to get back on to the App Store, Parler had to abide by Apple's terms and reconfigure its own platform's policies for Apple's approval.

Now, I'm not saying these other companies will "save" you from Musk's Twitter. That's ridiculous. But it's a fact that Twitter will need to rely on third-party platforms and if Musk wants his Twitter to be successful, he'll have to play ball with their rules, too.

It's business

In the end, Twitter is a business. The purpose of all the hype Elon Musk generates is to make him more money. Musk has money on the line here — he has bank financing to think about. Being that he'll likely need to bring in outside investors to help him foot the bill, they'll want a return on their investment. Tesla stock has already taken a hit since Musk announced his Twitter takeover bid over concerns he'll be splitting his time even further between his companies.

We've seen billionaires who are new to the social media business crash and burn when entering the space before. When Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. bought MySpace in 2005, effectively beginning its demise, the ruination of the platform wasn't because of ideological reasons or terrible users joining the platform. MySpace died because News Corp. did not understand the social media space and business went bad as a result. Based on Musk's lackluster takes on content moderation and engagement, he doesn't seem to get the industry either.

If Twitter under Musk changes its policies so dramatically that it further fills with bad actors, white supremacists, hate speech, and other noxious content, the company will likely lose business. Brands would likely deactivate their accounts and take their advertising dollars elsewhere. Not only would left-leaning users leave the platform, but even apolitical users might flee, too. Twitter would lose money.

There is no denying Twitter is important. People have built careers thanks to networking on the platform. Activists have used it as a tool to organize and spread the word on truly important social justice issues. News outlets have found sources for important stories on the social network. There is truly concern for what can happen to Twitter under Musk, especially based on his recent incendiary tweets. 

But Elon Musk has way more to lose here than Twitter's users do. And any users that do leave Twitter now based on what Musk says are giving him way too much credit. Remember, he's all hype! He's basking in the attention he's receiving for, frankly, being an asshole.

If Musk's worst tendencies don't prevail and Twitter basically remains at least the same as it is now, then its users will be just fine. And, if Musk tanks the Twitter business and the social media site fails, Twitter's users will be just fine, too. On the flip side, Musk will have lost billions, possibly even bringing his other companies, like Tesla, down with it. Most importantly, his ego will have taken a hit. Can you imagine his reaction to a very public failure?

And, come on, admit it... that would be really funny to watch.

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